You're driving through downtown NYC in an old 2013 Nissan Sentra when out of nowhere a car from your right t-bones you. You, just trying to get to work, had been looking at your phone, texting your boss about your late arrival. The car that had hit you, ran a red light. Neither of you are seriously injured, but when you talk to the person who hit you, you realize they're obviously very drunk. Now, skip toward what only has to be 4 years from now, and you're cruising through a brightly colored, full of green, beautiful New York at a consistent 25 miles an hours in your new 2025 Tesla Sedan. You have the chance to stare wondrously at the innovatively structured gardens and curious sculptures as your hands don't even touch the wheel. You come to a slow stop and you look up to see an old Nissan Sentra blazing by only 20 feet in front of you, where you would've been if not for your new car's sensory enhancements. This fantasy of what life could be - peaceful, green, and safe - doesn't have to be a fantasy anymore. This could be our reality. The true fantasy is the idea that our world can survive with the problematic ways of transportation we've relied on for too long now. How? Well it's quite simple really. With proper testing and distribution, autonomous vehicles can better our society by eliminating human error, and creating a healthier environment.
Human Flaw Compared to Technological Advancement
To start off, we have to look at the big issue here. The main causes of car-crash fatality all lead back to one thing; human flaw. When looking at the facts, distracted and irresponsible driving make a sizable dent in the car-crash fatality rates. To elaborate, in the article The Promise of a Post-Driver Life, Edward Humes explains, "Bad driving is the primary cause of fatal car crashes, most of which are the result of driving too drunk, too fast, or too distracted... almost all crashes result from avoidable acts of negligence, recklessness, foolishness, or law braking," (Paragraphs 6-7). We can see through Humes' explanation and - quite frankly, just plain common sense - that whether you're under the influence or just arrogant, you become a threat to the people around you the moment you make the irresponsible choice of stepping into a vehicle you plan on controlling. Driving a car while under the influence and ignoring the fact that you've become seriously dangerous is completely avoidable. And just the same for stepping into a car completely fine and allowing yourself to become distracted or just disregard the law and the people in vehicles around you. Self-driving cars can be built to shut down if someone has been drinking, slow down if the car passes the designated speed limit, and even help eliminate the usage of non-voice-command operated cell-phones. In Humes' article he states, "Cruise-control... could be repurposed to prevent drivers from exceeding posted speed limits," and further, "Blood alcohol touch sensors... could end drunken driving for good by shutting off the car and automatically summoning a ride-share," and he continues with, "And smartphones... can be forced by an even smarter car into voice-command-only status," (Paragraphs 10-12). This shows that these countless lives being lost to foolish, reckless driving can easily be saved with autonomous vehicles being distributed where they need to be.
The Mindset of Environmental Benefit
To further this point, we look at this transition into autonomous transportation. At the point in society when autonomy is the new norm, the problems we're facing today with environmental health will have already been diminished by the technological enhancements needed to get to full autonomy. When we envision an autonomous world, we tend to avoid the difficult problems that we need to overcome in order to bring that beautiful world to life. But these issues - including global warming and air pollution - can be solved through the technology that will also bring us our self-driven society. In the article Will Self-Driving Vehicles Be Eco-Friendly by Environment.co.za, the author explains, "Fully autonomous cars will require no maneuvering on the driver's part. A steering wheel, gearbox, and pedals will be needless. Moreover, these cars will be completely safe... In such a safe environment the need for safety equipment such as strong glass, airbags, and heavy materials will drope," (Paragraph 6-7). As the author concludes, with this technology dropping the crash-rates significantly, the need for our most habitual materials will drop along with it. Wasteful materials we've come to rely on will - fortunately - be out of the picture. The other important factor to consider is that these cars will require no gasoline or fossil fuels. With all these potentially dangerous materials gone, the amount of pollution in the streets, in the water, and in the air will clear up almost completely. We tend to forget the fact that by eliminating the most basic necessities in our life it can make a world of difference, we just have to be open to change, and be willing to take the first step. Not even that but just imagining what could be. By having the mindset to think about what needs to be changed, a world of possibilities opens up to us. Now we look at the article The Plastic Pollution Problem: How Society Can Shift To Be Plastic-Free , written by Samantha Radocchia where she explains that, "91% of plastic going to waste, finding a solution to this pollution problem won't be easy. It's going to take a combination of behavioral change, simplified supply chains, and government and regulatory support...Right now, however, there just aren't incentives for companies to stop using plastic. In fact, it's very much the opposite—plastic is economical. So over the long run, brands, governments, and consumers need to align interests, creating incentives for manufacturers to use bioplastics and alternative packaging that isn't petroleum-based," (Paragraphs 6, 15). It starts with us. We are a creative people and we are an innovative people. That's where that idea to create self driving cars came along; we saw a problem and we strove to fix it. So, by aiming for safer and environment-friendly roads, we hit two birds with one stone. By looking into these problems, we not only hit transportation, but we also put society into the mindset of solving these problems in other areas.
What About Technological Error?
Now, while discussing a topic with countless possible opinions, you're guaranteed to find overlapping perspectives. Some might believe self-driving cars will only do good for this world, while others might believe the exact opposite. I do not argue either side; that's where the overlap occurs. I believe autonomous transportation is a positive in our coming society, but requires heavy rules and regulations around testing and distribution. Others arguing the opposite might bring up the topic of technological error. To deepen our understanding of this perspective, we must look into the technology being used to put these miracles on the streets. Without the backup of a steering wheel and brake pedals, it's hard to trust a completely autonomous vehicle. If the car's sensors don't pick up on a walking person in the rain and you have no access to the car's controls, you can be led into a very dangerous situation. If the car malfunctions and you have no idea how to fix it, you can - again - be led into a very dangerous situation. The possibilities are endless.
Moore's Law
But the endless possibilities don't solely belong to a self-driving vehicle. You can talk about how dangerous technology-relied transportation is all day long but that won't change the fact that all cars malfunction. Even back when the first car with technology was built, the system hasn't been perfect. Technology may never be perfect. As shown in my first paragraph, human error causes a great portion of car crashes. These statistics have all been recorded alongside technological error. Take away the humans and you're left with a much smaller portion of crash-rates caused by technological error. To further this, think about the time when these cars will climb to the top of their success rates. This time may not come for another 10 years but by the time we do get there, our knowledge and resources will be so much greater than they are today, that our technology will be incredibly more advanced. At this point, the car-crash fatality rates will have dropped about 93%, eliminating approximately 3,056 deaths a day due to human error. According to Carla Tardi, as stated in her Investopedia article Moore's Law, "Moore's Law states that we can expect the speed and capability of our computers to increase every couple of years... Moore's Law assets that this growth is exponential," (Paragraph 1). Moore's Law claims that the rate of technological development will grow around 40% annually. This means in 10 years, technology is expected to have grown 400%. This 400% growth in development added to the 93% car-crash fatality reduction will lead society into a much safer transported environment.
The Near Future: Testing and Distribution
Although autonomous transportation certainly will improve society, there are some boundaries that have to be put up. It's a dangerous game, playing with technology that is soon expected to advance into AI (Artificial Intelligence). To get to safety with these cars on the roads, we must have strict regulations and guidelines to ensure testing and distribution of this technology is as safe as we want our future to be. Before we can get to a point where technology rules the world and everything and everyone is connected through technology, we must think about the time we have before 2030, when it's predicted that full self-driving cars will be open to the public. According to the article Study: Self-Driving Cars Are Less Than 20 Years Away by Charles Murray, "Semi-autonomous cars will hit the market by 2020, and fully autonomous, self-driving vehicles could be available for purchase a decade after that, a recently published Navigant Research study says," (Paragraph 1). This article was published in 2013, before all the recent testing and information about self-driving cars - through Elon Musk's 'Tesla' company - and predictions for what the next 20 years will look like, had come out. This chart from I. Wagner's article Tesla's research and development expenses from FY 2010 to FY 2020 shows that the costs jumped between 2016 and 2017 and now in 2021, should be just above $1500M a year being put into Tesla's development.
Semi-autonomous cars will still be on the roads up until 2030. This means the rules and regulations around testing and distribution have to be precise.
Here are a few rules and regulations that need to be accounted for:
Safe testing (in controlled environments)
Background checks when distributing
Starting at the age of 40, having a driver's license renewal every 5 years
Extra precautions to prevent extra human error
Why You Should Care
Whether you believe autonomous transportation will destroy society, or that it will restore society, the bottom line is this; technological development cannot be stopped. No matter how hard we try to put barriers around technology, self-driving vehicles will become our new normal. If we can't stop it, then why delay it? Waiting for technology to advance to a safer point is useless, as technology will only advance with more testing and development. If we can create safe - but not restraining - rules around testing and put effort into only trusting the technology in the right hands, our world, our earth, and our society will greatly benefit. The rate of environmental health will rise exponentially, while car-crash fatality rates will drop exponentially. Our world is constantly changing and with the help of autonomous transportation, we can get to a better place faster than it took Tesla to release auto-pilot. To help launch your society forward, take a stand. This doesn't have to mean buying a Tesla. All you have to do is be open-minded towards unstoppable change. Change is good when the result is worth the transition. By staying open to change, you have no choice but to launch our society into a safer, smarter, and greener future.
- M.R.
Works Cited:
Humes, Edward "The Promise of a Post-Driver Life" Consumer Reports Sep. 07, 2016 consumerreports.org
"Will Self-Driving Cars Be Eco-Friendly" environment.co.za
Radocchia, Samantha "The Plastic Pollution Problem: How Society Can Shift To Be Plastic-Free" Minute 2019 minutes.co
Tardi, Carla "Moore's Law Definition" Investopedia Feb. 24, 2021 investopedia.com
Murray, Charles "Study: Self-Driving Cars Are Less Than 20 Years Away" Design News Nov. 22, 2013 designnews.com
Wagner, Isabel "Tesla's research and development expenses form FY 2010 to FY 2020" Statista Jan. 29, 2021 statists.com
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